by Lyndon H.
LaRouche, Jr.
July 18, 2000
Excepting the
usual rogues and economics illiterates, influential circles around much of
the world are reporting, with ever lessening hesitation, that the
presently rotten-overripe, world monetary and financial system, is doomed
to an early chain-reaction collapse. Increasingly, among relevant circles
outside the U.S.A., world wide, the most notable questions include, how to
replace the present global system, and with exactly what?
Consequently,
increasingly bold steps in search for a replacement have been taken, in
East and South Asia, trends in progress since Malaysia, under the
leadership of Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad, has persisted in the
clearly successful use of capital and exchange controls. Recent weeks of
persisting, desperate, and provocative actions, from U.S. Treasury
Secretary Larry Summers and perennial Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan, have provoked similar discussions currently in progress outside
of Asia. These steps point, increasingly, toward the emergence of regional
systems of economic cooperation. Such regional efforts, if combined, could
serve as building-blocks of the new world monetary and financial system,
once the present International Monetary Fund (IMF) is either sent,
mercifully, into bankruptcy-reorganization, or simply disintegrates, soon,
of its own accord.
Among those
studying the prospect of regional alternatives to the imminently bankrupt
IMF, some leading economists have proposed that the precedent, of the
former role of the 1945-1966 U.S. gold-reserve dollar in creating a system
of fixed exchange rates, might be superseded now by revival of a new
system of relatively fixed exchange-rates, which is based upon regional
and other "baskets of currencies," instead of the former
gold-reserve-based dollar. The presently most publicized proposals in that
direction, are those which have come from among the "ASEAN Plus
Three" group of nations in Asia, and, secondly, among important
circles within continental western Europe. Similar discussions are in
progress among the Organization of the Islamic Conference countries.
In some
relevant, leading European circles, attention has been directed to both
the IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), and the European Monetary System
(EMS) proposal launched jointly by France's President Giscard d'Estaing
and Germany's Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, the latter during the late 1970s.
It is useful to compare such, and kindred proposals with my own mid-1970s
proposal for an International Development Bank (IDB), which attracted
vigorously antagonistic attention from sometime U.S. Secretary of State
Henry A. Kissinger, and related circles, at that time.
In today's
relevant European circles, as elsewhere, it is generally agreed that what
President Franklin Roosevelt's U.S. did, to organize a post-World War II
monetary system, worked very well, most notably to the benefit of both the
U.S. and western Europe. This system prospered until the aftermath of that
fateful year, 1963, when Germany's Chancellor Konrad Adenauer was pushed
into resigning, U.S. President Kennedy was assassinated, and France's
President Charles de Gaulle continued to come under the corrosive pressure
of assassination and other attacks, attacks which persisted through the
tumultuous cultural and economic paradigm-shift of 1967-1969.[1]
However, it
is also emphasized among those who recognize the urgency of returning to
the principles of the pre-1971 types of international monetary agreements
of fixed exchange-rates, that the U.S. dollar of this year 2000, if
compared to the prestigious U.S. dollar and economy which still existed
while President Kennedy was alive, is a relatively shabby thing. In
addition to that fact, the fear is, that under either a new U.S. Bush
Administration, or a presently unlikely Gore alternative, the worth of the
dollar would sink quickly to incalculable depths. In addition to those
considerations, as relevant circles in Europe and Asia note, the most
conspicuously stubborn current source of resistance to re-establishing a
system of fixed exchange-rates, is coming from the U.S.A. itself. For
that latter and other reasons, it has been mooted that the needed, new
monetary and trade system, should use a basket of currencies, as a
replacement for the 1945-1965 role of the U.S. gold-reserve-denominated
dollar.
I agree that
the model of SDRs could be a leading included feature of the required
economic recovery measures; but, I disagree, although sympathetically,
with the suggestion that a basket of currencies could be a successful
feature of the urgently needed reform. Instead of the suggested basket of
currencies, I propose the following two-phased approach to the
establishment of the needed new, global, fixed exchange-rate monetary and
trade system.
I propose,
that we structure the discussion of these matters in the following terms.
Let us agree, that, at the present moment, the agenda for proposed
reforms, is organized implicitly around the notion, that the safe escape
from the presently ongoing global financial and monetary disasters, is
likely to occur only in two distinct, if overlapping, successive stages.
That is to
emphasize the fact, that, since the tragic blunder adopted by the U.S.
Government for the October 1998 Washington, D.C. monetary conference, that
government has not only abandoned its earlier options for leading
comprehensive monetary reform, but has entered into promoting, most
stubbornly, a global financial hyperinflationary spiral, one which has
become recently, analogous to that which led into the Weimar Germany
commodity-price hyperinflation of March-November 1923.[2]
The continued folly of the U.S. monetary and related policies, since the
October 1998 Washington conference sessions, aggravated by the conduct and
catastrophic outcome of the recent NATO war against Yugoslavia, has ruined
much of the U.S.'s former, pre-October 1998 diplomatic potential for
playing a constructive leading role in global monetary reform.
Thus, in
light of the monstrous degree of degeneration in both U.S. credibility and
policy-shaping since October 1998, a feasible reform, if it is to occur at
all, were almost certain to come in two successive, regional and global
phases.
The first
stage, as typified by the ongoing discussion among representatives of the ASEAN
Plus Three association, is typified by the revival of the 1997
proposal, by Japan's E. Sakakibara, for an Asian Monetary Fund.
Such a facility is intended, not only as a measure of defense against
financial-warfare attacks by hedge funds and similar speculators. It is
also aimed to promote urgently needed measures of hard-commodity forms of
combined trade and long-term capital improvements among those Asian
nations. In this first stage, we might foresee regional, somewhat
overlapping, groupings of similar outlook appearing, and cooperating among
one another, in various regions of the planet.
The second
stage, would be the re-establishment of an effectively global monetary
organization, featuring a return to fixed exchange-rates, to supersede the
presently bankrupt IMF system. This second stage, would be a new monetary
system, one assembled on the included initiative of participating regional
groups of nations.
Therefore,
examine the issue of "a basket of currencies" in light of the
fact, that the two-phased approach to reform is, presently, the only
visible prospect, if the world still has any favorable prospect of any
kind, during the medium-term decades ahead.
The problem
thus defined, is the following.
As long as
the IMF system, and its related attributes exist in their present form,
the attempt to use a "basket of currencies" as a substitute for
the kind of role performed by the 1945-1963 U.S. dollar, is not a remedy,
but a trap. Yet, the world can not wait until a general monetary reform
occurs, to take certain urgent practical measures of defense against the
worst effects of the presently onrushing global financial and monetary
catastrophe. Therefore, at this stage, it has become essential to
institute preliminary measures which operate entirely outside the
supervision, or other control by the presently doomed,
"globalized" monetary system.
Hence, today,
we need to see monetary reform presently as a two-step process. The first
stage, is the emergence of regional blocs which operate either outside, or
in parallel to the existing IMF system. The second stage, will be the
crucial role of such regional blocs in constituting a replacement for the
now already hopelessly bankrupt IMF system. In the interim, measures taken
by regional blocs must scrupulously avoid the ruinous effects which must
result, were such measures to become entangled systemically in the already
doomed IMF system. A prudent man does not remain within a cabin of an
already sinking H.M.S. Titanic. The transition must be
based upon economic values which exist independently of the present IMF
system, and which can assuredly outlive that latter system.
What
Is in That Basket?
[In assessing
any selection of a basket of currencies, ask the question: "What are
any among these currencies actually worth?" A scrupulously crafted
answer would be: "Any combination of these currencies would be about
as sound an investment as the German Reichsmark was at the beginning of
July 1923." In short, the entirety of the present world monetary and
financial system, is one gripped by an accelerating rate of financial and
monetary hyperinflation in nominal financial assets; it is a system which
is presently trapped in a critical boundary-state. We are presently at the
verge of general disintegration of the present global system, including
most leading currencies, excepting perhaps that of China and a few others,
today.
All prudent
policies must be designed to protect the credit of national governments
from being dragged into the muck in which the present system will be
surely buried. In short, the needed advice is: "Don't send good money
down the sink-hole with the bad."
The crucial
fact upon which all sound economic decisions are now premised, is the
evidence which shows that the presently reigning financial and monetary
institutions, are so hopelessly and profoundly bankrupt, that the world
economy could not be saved without wiping several hundreds of trillions of
current U.S.-dollar equivalent from the current, vastly hyperinflated,
financial-asset-values account. In other words, outstanding financial
claims must be brought implicitly into line with the world's present
levels of an estimated hard-commodity valuation of the world's combined
domestic product. Without such drastic reductions in nominal financial
claims, no economic recovery from this onrushing, biggest and deepest
world depression, were possible. As much as the equivalent to $400
trillions in presently extant nominal financial assets of the world at
large, will have to be either wiped from the world's accounts, or reduced,
by reorganization in bankruptcy, to a mere fraction of their current
nominal hard-commodity valuation.
Those claims
denoted in such forms as financial derivatives, especially
over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives, must simply be wiped from the books,
categorically. Claims rooted in so-called "junk bonds" and
kindred speculative fancies, must be treated similarly. Much of the
international debt created, not by actual purchases, but by synthetic
bookkeeping constructions, by administrative mechanisms of a
floating-exchange-rate monetary system, must be simply cancelled.
Large-scale write-downs in inflated financial value of real estate and
other matters must occur. Even much honorable debt, including that
actually incurred by sovereign governments, must be reorganized or
rescheduled. In general, the total mass of financial claims must be pared
down to those rates of aggregated debt-service payments which are
consistent with a return to the economic-growth policies prevailing in
western Europe and the Americas during the interval 1945-1965.
The principal
concerns governing such financial and monetary reorganization, must be to
resume and maintain levels of employment, consumption, and production,
especially in hard-commodity categories of production and consumption, and
to maintain rates of net growth, per capita, and per square kilometer, in
hard commodity and related infrastructural qualities, which are consistent
with what had been the converging policy-objectives of the governments of
the U.S.A., France, and Germany, during the incumbencies of President John
F. Kennedy, Charles de Gaulle, and Konrad Adenauer. In other words, the
needed reorganization of the presently bankrupt international financial
and monetary systems, must amount to a structural reform in composition of
categories of employment, investment, and credit-flows, to return to goals
and standards which are not inconsistent with the then-current operating
objectives of those governments from that time.
Such
seemingly drastic and sudden measures are not merely policy options. Such
measures are now a precondition for the possibility for continuing
anything deserving of the name "modern civilized life."
To those who
have not yet thought through the relevant facts, it may seem extravagant
to warn, that without such seemingly drastic measures of financial and
monetary reorganization, without the kind of reversal of hard-commodity
investment and production trends increasingly prevalent today, this planet
will soon be plunged into a global dark age, into a downward spiral into
sub-Saharan-Africa-like conditions, under which it were likely that world
population levels would sink during coming decades, to well below a
billion individuals. The alarming, but not exaggerated report of the new
level of danger to all nations from global and regional infectious
diseases, is to be read by all intelligent governments, and other relevant
agencies, as a "marker" reflecting the presently diseased state
of the world's economy at large.
This warning
will not be considered an extravagant one, by any among those qualified
specialists who have studied the physical and immediately related causes
for the changes in the potential relative population-density (and
life-expectancy levels) of Europe and the Americas since about A.D. 1500.
If we consider the cumulative development of infrastructure and productive
technology since the mid-Fourteenth-Century New Dark Age, we must
recognize that the trends in policy-making under the IMF system since the
mid-1960s, have reversed the long-term, net upward demographic trends in
the direction of population-levels which had been reached, prior to
1966-1971, which had dominated long swings in European civilization during
several preceding centuries. Without reversing sharply the accelerating
down-shift in demographically relevant technology of investment and
related practice, which has predominated under the IMF system since the
mid-1960s, we have recently reached the brink of a global demographic
catastrophe.
Such a
catastrophe could be averted, even at this late stage, if leading nations
of the world were to agree on measures which, in effect, bring the world's
economic relations into forms of cooperation comparable to that shared
between the U.S.A. and western Europe during the 1945-1965 post-war
interval. It were sufficient to return to policies of practice comparable
to what we in the U.S.A. and western continental Europe did rather well,
if with some ups and downs, during those post-war years. Today, we must
add the warning, that such cooperation be based upon a true, essentially
global partnership with those nations which have been, until now, the
continued victims of the legacy of colonialism, including the neo-colonial
practices presently inhering in the common practice of the presently
bankrupt IMF system.
The
participation of a leading technology-exporting nation, Japan, in the
ASEAN Plus Three process, if extended, in fact, into a more general
cooperation throughout Eurasia, represents, at least approximately, a
"full-set economy" base for high rates of gain in physically
defined, per capita, productive powers of labor among all of the partners
in such an arrangement. My hope is, that, despite the admittedly
lamentable qualities of certain currently predominant preferences for U.S.
Presidential pre-candidates, a sane government could emerge in 2001 out of
the present, turbulent and mostly disgusting political process ongoing
there at this moment, a government which will be a willing, cooperating
partner in a global arrangement of the type which the aspirations of the
ASEAN Plus Three group imply.
To reach that
point in a timely fashion, certain preliminary steps are indispensable. To
locate the required measures, we must take into account certain leading
lessons from the period preceding the drift into the ruinous, presently
bankrupt IMF "floating-exchange-rate" system. We must depart the
disastrous changes in policy of the recent thirty-odd years, in preference
for lessons to be learned from the successful experience of the 1945-1966
interval.
We are thus,
in a condition, in which even many among the world's leading currencies
will have to be either simply wiped from the accounts, or put through
bankruptcy-reorganization under the authority of a new world system. In
this transition, many presently leading currencies are to be, either,
systemically reorganized, or, replaced by newly defined currencies and
related credit-mechanisms. These currencies can be reorganized or created,
so, only by reversing recent trends toward "globalization," by
invoking the credit-creating authority of the perfectly sovereign
nation-state.
It must be
understood, that such reorganization is not the unthinkably radical
proposal which some wild-eyed, pro-monetarist hysterics insist it is. As I
have said: Either we do this rationally, by will, or the presently
onrushing shock-fronts of global financial, economic, political, and
social chaos will soon do it for us, whether we choose that outcome, or
not.
We have been
in similar conditions during the course of the just-concluded Twentieth
Century; the present world financial and monetary crisis is deeper, wider,
and bigger than anything seen during the Twentieth Century. Also, as in
some relevant Twentieth-Century precedents, we shall be obliged to cancel
bankrupt currencies from the accounts, replacing those by creating new
currencies, new currencies to be established by the sovereign power of
nation-state governments.
Admittedly,
there is presently, hysterical resistance to any such reform. This is to
be seen among politically powerful circles of financier-oligarchical
interest, which represent today the same point of view on this matter as
those Anglo-Americans, and others, who responded to the outbreak of the
1930s Great Depression, by joining forces to install and consolidate Adolf
Hitler in power, during 1933-1934. The relevance of this point is made
clear, by contrasting the proposed reform resolved upon by Germany's
Friedrich List Gesellschaft in 1931, to the policies of the circles of
such representatives of financier-oligarchical interest, as Britain's
Montagu Norman, Norman's asset Hjalmar Schacht, New York's Brown Brothers,
Harriman, and von Papen.
Today, the
policies of the latter class of monetarist opponents of presently needed
reforms, today's equivalents of the 1920s and 1930s Normans and Schachts,
are represented chiefly, and exactly, by the circles of the Mont Pelerin
Society, and such Mont Pelerin Society accomplices as Britain's former
Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, the U.S. Heritage Foundation, and the
radical "free trade" fanatics in the U.S. Congress. If these
latter, pro-financier-oligarchical forces prevail, as typified, in the
U.S.A., by Larry Summers, Alan Greenspan, and the followers of pollster
"Dick" Morris today, the world would soon see regimes and
conditions worse than those which Europe experienced under Adolf Hitler's
reign. Here, on this point, lies, precisely, the immediate danger to
all civilization, as typified by the U.S. Presidential pre-candidacies of
Governor George W. Bush and Vice-President Al Gore.
In this set
of circumstances, policy-shapers should study more carefully the more
deeply underlying principle behind the approximately twenty-year,
1945-1965, success of the post-World War II, Bretton Woods
fixed-exchange-rate system, especially as that system operated in
relations among the U.S.A., western Europe, and Japan. In this account,
include attention to the fact that the way in which the system was
implemented, after President Roosevelt's most untimely death, was vastly
inferior to what the result would have been, both morally and
economically, had Roosevelt's intentions not been significantly overturned
by the successor, Truman Administration. As much of Roosevelt's intentions
which were actually adopted, worked to great benefit for both the U.S.A.
and western Europe, at least up through the middle of the 1960s. The
question now to be addressed, against that background, is: What are the
crucially successful features of that fixed-exchange-rate system, which
are fully applicable, as a matter of principle, to the vastly different
world conditions of today?
On the
surface, the answer to that challenge for today, is rather elementary, and
therefore readily adopted and supported by rational leading political
bodies. However, as I shall indicate here, the success of such remedies
requires leading roles by experts who also understand certain deeper
subtleties of the matter. I explain the distinctions and their
implications here.
A
Basket of Commodities
In fact, the
strength of the 1945-1965 Bretton Woods System, lay in the fact that the
standard of value was, in effect, a basket of hard commodities.
The U.S. dollar's strength as a reserve currency, was based upon the
assurance that the current obligations against the U.S. dollar would be
matched by the combination of an export-surplus plus gold bullion at a
standard, fixed price for monetary-reserve gold. The gold-reserve system
worked, because it was defended by protectionist and related regulatory
measures, both internationally, and within the relevant nations
themselves. It was the physical strength of the U.S. economy, as
measurable per capita, a strength measured in terms of rates of growth
of physical productivity per capita and per square kilometer, a
strength expressed as periods of high rate of increase in
hard-commodity forms of capital formation, which was crucial for the
way in which the U.S. economy performed during the initial two decades of
the post-war monetary system. This physical strength, matched with
war-torn Europe's needs for both expanded volumes of U.S. agricultural
products and machine-tool categories, enabled U.S. credit to stimulate a
rate of growth of physical productivity, per capita, in western Europe, a
growth from which Europe obtained the means to meet its obligations to the
U.S.
In effect, in
President Franklin Roosevelt's recovery policies of the 1930s, and in the
1945-1965 Bretton Woods System, the U.S.A. was carrying out the same type
of economic-growth policies proposed by Dr. Lautenbach at the 1931 meeting
of the Friedrich List Gesellschaft, extending credit to build up the
productive powers of its customers, and thus, during 1945-1965, enriching
a growing U.S. economy by providing Europe the power to repay the credit
extended to it. Thus, Dr. Lautenbach's proposal had been not only
congruent with the measures actually taken in the U.S.A. under President
Franklin Roosevelt, a Roosevelt legacy which informed the 1945-1965
post-war economic relations between the U.S.A. and western Europe. The
point to be stressed, is that the policies of both FDR and Lautenbach,
were premised explicitly upon what U.S. Treasury Secretary Alexander
Hamilton had defined for the U.S. Congress as the anti-Adam Smith American
System of political-economy, the same policy represented by the
leading Nineteenth-Century economists Friedrich List and Henry C. Carey,
and the policies which the Friedrich List Gesellschaft represented in
Germany at the time of Dr. Lautenbach's presentation of the proposed
policy.
This is
essentially the same view expressed by Japan and other current proponents
of an ASEAN Plus Three system of cooperation in Asia. Those sectors of the
international economy which have the ability to supply nations with the
means to increase the latter's productive powers of labor, are to be
repaid, according to appropriate medium- to long-term capital funding
agreements, out of those gains in per-capita productive powers of labor,
which result from the use of the relevant imported technologies.
This had been
President Franklin Roosevelt's intention for post-war U.S. aid to nations
and peoples he intended should be liberated from the colonialist systems
and legacies of Portugal, the Netherlands, the British monarchy, and
France. Roosevelt detailed infrastructure-development for Africa as an
example of this policy. That policy, as it had been intended by Roosevelt,
should become the basis for new forms of cooperation between those
sections of the world's economy which have the ability to provide advanced
technologies, and less developed regions. This policy-orientation provides
the mission-orientation which a new, fixed-exchange-rate, world monetary
system must adopt.
A point
concerning a fixed-exchange-rate requirement, is to be emphasized, at this
juncture. If the discount rate on medium- to long-term extension of
international credit exceeds the levels of 1-2% per year simple
interest, high average rates of hard-commodity capital formation are
not possible generally, and, most emphatically, not possible for
developing nations as entireties. If the values of relevant currencies are
allowed to fluctuate under pressures from financier-oligarchical centers
such as London, the general, open-market rate of borrowing-costs must rise
accordingly, and must tend to be reflected, even axiomatically, in
compounded interest-payment requirements, rather than merely simple
interest. In effect, the very existence of a gold-standard system, such as
that which London maintained world-wide, until 1931, or, a
floating-exchange-rate system, such as that set into motion by President
Richard Nixon's decree of August 1971, spells relatively immediate
catastrophe for so-called developing nations, and ultimate ruin for the
others.[3]
In the
present situation, where the valuation to be placed on each and every
currency of Europe and the Americas, among others, is increasingly in
doubt, what constitutes the quality of durable value upon which medium- to
long-term, hard-commodity capital formation could be rationally premised?
In the celebrated words of Shakespeare's Hamlet: "To be, or not to
be: that is the question." When it is, thus, most forcefully
demonstrated, that durable forms of economic values, can not be adduced
from a quantity of money, where does a measurable valuation of economic
activity lie?
Enter, once
again, the matter of "a basket of commodities." I mean a
"basket of commodities" as that notion implicitly underlies the
relative success of the 1945-1965 fixed-exchange-rate monetary system. I
mean a "basket of commodities" as U.S. Treasury Secretary
Alexander Hamilton's 1791 Report to the U.S. Congress On The Subject
of Manufactures defined what became known world-wide as The
American System of political-economy. Just as the success of the
1945-1965 Transatlantic system was premised upon coordinate
physical-economic growth in the combined national economies of the U.S.A.
and western Europe, so Hamilton, basing himself, via Vattel, on the work
of Gottfried Leibniz, based the economic policies of the U.S.A. on the
mutual growth of the urban industries and the rural countryside.[4]
In short, sound economics premises its measurements of performance upon
growth-rates, measured in physical units per capita and per square
kilometer, not upon nominal (e.g., financial) prices attached to a list of
produced goods.
So, in a
situation in which the hard-commodity content among currencies is
fluctuating, one has still the option of constructing a synthetic unit of
account which is based upon an agreed basket of hard commodities.
Thereafter, as currencies fluctuate, it is the currencies, not the
commodities, which are given implicitly adjusted values, as based upon the
basket of commodities used to define the unit. Such a synthetic unit could
serve as the accounting-system of an international credit facility, as, in
that sense, the basis for creating a kind of successor to SDRs.
Thus, in the
matter of medium- to long-term capital loans for hard-commodity
investments, the relevant currencies are priced according to the basket of
commodities as a standard. The loan is made in these units, not
currency-prices; however, the exporter is credited with that number of
synthetic units at the time the product is delivered, and repayments of
the loan are determined by the price of the relevant currency, in those
units, at the time that specific payment is due.
Thus, in
effect, a barter-like system of medium- to long-term lending of hard
commodity product, is used to approximate the "gold-reserve plus
basket of commodities exported" system which operated in relevant
Transatlantic relations during the 1945-1965 interval of a
fixed-exchange-rate system.
That is the
gist of the matter.
Now, examine
the interim use of such a synthetic unit of trading account more closely.
Examine the way in which such a unit is to be designed and managed.
It will be
obvious to the reader that what is to be said on this account, involves a
set of nested approximations of the exact values desired; but, that should
not be considered cause for reasonable objections. The fact of the matter
is, that, contrary to the Laputa-like superstitions which certain
academic mystics spread to their credulous students at Harvard and Chicago
Universities and elsewhere, all prices and related set values in
day-to-day economic practice, are never closer to reality, than serving as
reasonable approximations; the mythical "right price" exists
only in the minds of deluded persons. Contrary to utilitarians such as
Jeremy Bentham, there is no asymptotic price-value upon which commodities
must tend to converge in a state of "free fall." There are no
random numbers in real economic processes, but only the customary
charlatans who teach a dogma of random numbers.
The margin of
error which may be incurred in adopting an estimated value, such as a
standard basket of commodities, should be understood as a reasonable
choice made, in effect, by relying upon intelligent management of the
relationships by such a qualified agency, and upon an understanding rooted
in good faith among the parties to the arrangement.
The
Practice and the Theory
The key to
establishing a reasonably determined standard unit of account for a basket
of commodities, is to reject, from the outset, the reductionist
input-output presumption of Britain's Piero Sraffa, for example, that
consumption might be represented as a process of production of commodities
by commodities. We must examine the way in which combined market-baskets
of economic infrastructure (such as public works), combined with household
consumption and with technologically progressive, hard-commodity forms of
increasingly capital-intensive investments in capital goods of production
and physical distribution, increases the relative productive powers of
labor, as this is to be measured, in physical product, per capita and per
square kilometer. It is that factor of rate of growth, as expressed in
hard-commodity terms, which defines the appropriate notion of assignable
economic value.
So far, so
good; but, there is a catch. In some respects, such measurements of
growth-rates are relatively obvious; but, therein lies an often overlooked
subtlety, to ignore which may have dreadful results. Consider the more
obvious kinds of measurements, and then what might appear to some to be
the awfully clever subtleties.
The essential
calculation to be attempted, in any rational scheme of economic studies,
is what is best identified as the potential relative population-density
of the population of the national economy as a whole. The
measurement to be derived from this standard, is a measurement of the rate
of increase, or decrease of that potential. That measurement defines what
should be understood as expressing an underlying notion of economic
growth. The following steps are featured.
Competent
study of economic processes begins, not with the production of
commodities, but, rather, the production of people. That is to say, with
the development of children into becoming, decades later, functioning
adult members of the economy as a whole. Indeed, here lies the natural
root of the formation of capital.
To structure
calculations to this effect, we must define a minimal size of a typical
family household, and its included birth and mortality rates. We do this,
in order to estimate what is necessary to meet the standard for growth and
self-sustained well-being of that population as a whole. One defines the
level of technology--e.g., a set of technologies--which allows that
population to generate a corresponding net rate of physical-economic
growth. We define the relationship between the adult work-force and the
total population, as organized in households--that is to say, organized in
the way in which viable forms of households produce the emotional and
intellectual development which is to be desired in the functioning adult
member of society. This establishes a rough standard for purposes of
comparison.
One then
defines the corresponding structural characteristics of the division of
labor in the society as a whole. The first objective, is to estimate the
market-baskets of household consumption, infrastructural development
(e.g., public works), industrial output, and agricultural output, and to
measure these, also, both per capita and per square kilometer of the total
territory of the national economy. This defines sets of "market
baskets" of the commodities, including professional economic services
(e.g., health, education, science) required by each of these broad
categories of market-baskets. These categories of consumption, plus waste,
are compared with total output of the economy, as measured in the same
terms. The obvious comparisons, of better, less, or stagnant,
in rates of increase, follow.
Thus, by
applying a synthetically chosen price to a household income
measured in terms of per capita of labor-force, and also per unit of area,
we have a convenient and reasonably reliable method for estimating
monetary values. By adding the actual relative free energy generated by
production, in addition to costs so determined, we are able to estimate
both total output of the economy, and a corresponding, estimated rate of
growth. Insofar as this estimated rate of growth coincides with a
corresponding rate of increase of the potential relative
population-density, the estimate for rate of growth is sufficiently sound
for purposes of accounting and other administrative functions respecting
the economy at large.
Notably, in a
rational economy, prices are not set by anarchic free trade, but by human
boundary conditions imposed upon the economic process as a whole. These
boundaries, by their nature, must be set chiefly by governments.
Typical of
such boundary conditions, are so-called "protectionist"
measures, such as those former regulations of the economy which have been
removed under the influence of the Mont Pelerin Society or kindred
fanatics, especially since the January 1969 inauguration of the ill-fated
dupe of the Mont Pelerin Society, President Richard Nixon. These
protective boundaries were then assaulted, even more savagely, under the
1977-1981 reign of that free-trade and fiscal-austerity fanatic President
Jimmy Carter who, with suitable historical irony, launched the chronic
indebtedness of the U.S. Government which has plagued the nation since (Figure
2a and Figure
2b). Similarly, the decline in the percentile of national-income
of the lower eighty percentile of family-income brackets, since the 1977
inauguration of President Jimmy Carter, shows a decline in the U.S.
popular conditions of life, which corresponds to both the cannibalistic
looting of previous improvements in productive potential, and a
corresponding general lowering of the per-capita physical productivity of
the labor-force as a whole.
Protectionist
measures do tend to increase prices, if only in the short to medium term,
as the rabid monetarists never cease in whimpering about this effect. (In
the medium to long term, the higher rates of increase of productivity made
possible by higher rates of hard-commodity capital formation, result in a
secular decline in prices of particular products, while generally
improving the quality of those products.) Thus, that increase of prices
may be viewed as a rise above a so-called "free trade" level, to
a "fair trade" level.
These
protectionist, regulatory measures have two indispensable benefits for any
economy whose government is sane enough to impose them. First, they
provide direct or indirect protection to the income-levels, and therefore
to the potential productivity expressed by households of operatives; this,
combined with rational taxation policies, ensures that the incurred price,
by government and the private sector, of maintaining the desired level of
potential relative population-density, is secured. Second, in so acting,
governments create the market for those medium- to long-term public and
private capital investments, on which improvement in the potential
relative population-density depends.
Promotion of
the general welfare, which is an integral part of the fundamental
constitutional law of the U.S.A.--if recently a flagrantly violated
obligation--demands that those measures which are needed to ensure the
improvement of the potential relative population-density of the nation,
per capita, and per square kilometer, are taken. This includes public
works which no private entrepreneur could undertake as a business
proposition; clear, on this account, is the responsibility of the
sovereign government for the conditions of life and work of all of the
people and of all of the territory of the nation.
Thus, public
policy, so shaped, creates what wild-eyed dupes of the Mont Pelerin
Society denounce as a willful, arbitrary intervention by the state, into
the affairs of trade. Without those measures which that Society abhors, no
modern economy could survive for long. Indeed, three decades-odd of that
Society's ideological influence on leading governments, have created a
wasteland of the once-successful economies which had grown up in the U.S.
and western Europe during the 1945-1965 interval.[5]
In this process, the physical-economic values which have been destroyed,
since the mid-1960s, include much of the entire net development of modern
infrastructure, agriculture, and industry, in Europe and the Americas,
during the preceding hundred years, since the middle of the 1860s. Even
two World Wars of the Twentieth Century did less net damage to Europe and
the Americas than has been done by the "globalizers" and
"free trade" ideologues during the recent thirty-odd years,
since the ruinous first Harold Wilson Labour government came to power in
the United Kingdom.
The same
question may be posed in a different way. During the recent thirty-odd
years, a hitherto successful form of trans-Atlantic monetary system
devolved into the present stage of bankruptcy. What were the measurements
which were used by policy-shapers to bring about thirty-odd years of such
folly? What was so fatally wrong in the assumptions of the institutions
which have been most successful, since the mid-1960s, in bringing about
this magnificent, global catastrophe?
Those
institutions are well-known, readily identified: they are the Mont Pelerin
Society and its co-thinkers. The result which that influence has produced,
does not reflect merely the accidental result of a sometimes erroneous
reading of the dials by the policy-makers and managers; the catastrophe
which their influence has brought about, is systemic in nature. It
is the very design of the instruments which have been used to misguide the
preponderance of the world's most influential policy-makers and managers,
which has brought this epochal calamity upon the planet. It is, thus, the
financial accountants and the preponderance of the economists, whose
systemically aberrant standards of practice have brought this catastrophe
upon us: systemically.
Granted, that
the statistics lately reported and interpreted by the U.S. government and
others, are, like the insane chatter about "information society"
and an actually mythical "New Economy," deliberately, and
increasingly falsified, that with the same intensity of desperation
otherwise found commonly among those attempting, through fraudulent lures
to investors and creditors, to conceal a thoroughly ripened corporate
bankruptcy. However, such currently popularized frauds by governments,
central bankers, and relevant others, are a symptom of the underlying
problem, not the root-cause.
From this
standpoint, what has failed is the empiricist system of bookkeeping, often
taught under the misleading name of "economics," the system of
bookkeeping which came to be associated with such names as Adam Smith,
Jeremy Bentham, et al. Here, we go beyond the practical superficialities
of a design of a basket of commodities, into the underlying principles,
the theory, of the same matter.
The relevant
theory is, in summary, as follows. I have stated these points at length,
repeatedly, during the five decades since my first consolidation of my
original discoveries in the field of physical economy. These need to be
said again, until the students have mastered these concepts to the point
of knowing the ideas, rather than merely learning the words of the
description.
- In the science of physical economy, as first defined by the
relevant 1671-1716 work of Gottfried Leibniz, the specific distinction
of the human species from all others, is the fact that only mankind is
able to increase its species' potential relative
population-density--its power--by an act of will.
In mankind's increasing power within, and over the universe, the
relevant act of will is expressed as the discovery of what is proven
to be a universal physical principle. It is through man's accumulation
of that knowledge, and man's development of the forms of cooperation
through which that knowledge may be applied, that our species is
permitted to choose willful changes in our species' behavior, through
which our species' power in and over the universe is increased in
clearly measurable forms. This measurement is expressed essentially in
terms of man's increased ability to exist, per capita and per square
kilometer of the territory under control of a society.
- Insofar as the term "physical science" is used to
indicate what today's classrooms accept as a notion of modern
mathematical physics, both the existence of living processes and of
human beings, are to be regarded as systemically impossible
mathematically. Since the work of Clausius, Grassmann, Kelvin,
Helmholtz, Maxwell, Rayleigh, and Boltzmann, among others, during the
course of the Nineteenth Century, it had become conventional to say,
that from the standpoint of mathematical physics so defined, the
physical universe is governed by a universal law of entropy. The cause
for perpetual embarrassment of the advocates of that statistical dogma
was, that neither living processes, nor those processes which set
mankind apart from other living processes, obey such a rule of
universal entropy. Since living processes and persons are a highly
efficient part of the universe, certain doubts respecting the honesty
and sanity of the advocates of universal entropy had to be mentioned,
even at the risk of seeming impolite, of even triggering the
expectable explosion of freakishness from the pompous ass teaching the
dogma to the class.
In economics, real profit of an economy as a whole, is expressed as a
marginal increase of the potential relative population-density. This
marginal gain corresponds to what is usefully termed the free
energy of the system. Thus, like the living, upward evolving
biosphere, the process is characteristically anti-entropic. In
real economies, the question whether a taken profit is actually a
profit to that economy as a whole, finds its answer in comparing
nominal profit-rates with the actual free-energy ratio expressed in
terms of correlatives of increases of the potential relative
population-density. Indeed, most of the profit attributed to the U.S.
economy since August 1971, especially since January 1977, has been, in
net effect, in the form of pseudo-growth: the burning-up, so to speak,
of past investments in basic economic infrastructure, productive
capital, and so on, as merely nominal, financial-accounting profit
taken out of the real economy, rather than actual free energy added to
it.
- Therefore, chiefly in response to the popularization of the
Kelvin-Clausius dogma of statistical thermodynamics, apologists for
what is still considered today a conventional view of mathematical
physics, adopted the term negative entropy, a term sometimes
abbreviated as negentropy. According to the popularized,
statistical approach to such subject-matters, the prevailing
assumption is, that: a) universal negentropy does not exist; b)
processes which appear, statistically, to exhibit negentropic behavior,
are able to do so only by increasing the rate of entropy in the
environment in which they operate. Ludwig Boltzmann's development of
ideas in that direction, and the impact of Boltzmann's influence upon
his students, notably Erwin Schrödinger's pathetic views on the
principles of living organisms, are a notable illustration of the
point.
- Since the 1948-1952 interval, I have rejected these
generally accepted mathematics classroom views on entropy and negative
entropy, defining them as reflecting the influence of what is to be
recognized, specifically, as the social disease of neo-Kantian
Romanticism: the denial of the existence of those consciously
apprehensible forms of cognitive synthesis, upon which discoveries of
universal principles depend absolutely.[6]
The paradoxes which show prevailing dogma on entropy/negentropy to be
pathological, compel us to recognize that the principle of life is
a universal physical principle in and of itself, in the sense that
the revolutionary work of Carl Gauss's student and follower Riemann
defines the notion of a multiply-connected manifold. I have added my
own original contribution to the science of physical economy, that the
principle of cognition is also a universal physical principle.
Since, as Vernadsky has presented the case for the biosphere, the
anti-entropic principle of living processes, is categorically superior
to non-living, statistically entropic processes, and since, as the
economic history of scientific discovery shows, characteristically
anti-entropic cognitive processes are superior to otherwise merely
living processes, these two, respectively distinct universal physical
principles, of life and cognition, must be located in
their corresponding place in the body of physical science as a whole.[7]
- At first glance, the changes in behavior which enable
society to increase its potential relative population-density, are a
matter of observable changes in the relationship between the
demographically defined individual person and nature. Thus, we measure
matters in terms of changes in physical values per capita and per
square kilometer of surface-area. From this vantage-point, we can
estimate the increase in productive powers of labor, as having the
form of a change in the characteristic curvature of that Riemannian
physical-space-time geometry which represents the current state of
scientific and technological development of practice. In this view,
the addition of a valid new universal physical principle, changes the
characteristic curvature of the physical-economic domain of action.
The synthesis of a validated universal physical principle, which
occurs only through the sovereign, hypothesis-generating processes of
individual cognition, thus becomes the form of human action, by means
of which mankind's power in and over the universe is increased.
- However, closer examination of the matter shows, that we
can not limit this function of cognition to the matter of validatable
discoveries of universal physical principle. Since notions of
universal principle can not be transmitted solely by means of
sense-perception, the ability of society to cooperate in the
selection and use of discovered physical principles, depends upon
replication of the cognitive act of discovery of a principle by one
mind in the mind of another. This replication, as it occurs in
circumstances such as those of Classical humanist forms of education,
is known to us as a body of experimentally validated universal
principles of Classical artistic forms of composition. Through those
forms of art which reference the cognitive processes of mind, rather
than mere sense-perception (e.g., sensual forms of pleasure and pain),
we foster the forms of insight needed for effective collaboration in
producing and promoting the universal physical principles upon which
the anti-entropic increase of mankind's potential relative
population-density depends. These Classical forms include not only
what are customarily regarded as the combined plastic and non-plastic
art forms, but also the development of literate forms of language, the
study of history, and of other matters of statecraft, as well.
- Thus, the manifold of such universal physical and
Classical-artistic principles represents the principled medium through
which mankind acquires both the physical principles and principles of
cooperation on which the increase of our species' potential relative
population-density depends.
- Three crucial points of economic policy are to be derived
from the foregoing considerations.
- That the principal human source of economic growth is the
education of the young, a span of development which, for the case of
the most advanced economies of the mid-1960s, occupies approximately
the first quarter-century of the life of increasing portions of the
total population of new-born individuals. This means not only a
Classical humanist form of scientific and artistic education in
schools and universities, but conditions of family and community
life which are emotionally and otherwise suited to the promotion of
the self-development of the cognitive powers of the young
individual.
- Thus, the student's reliving the re-enactment of
validated original discoveries of universal physical principle, and
the related role of university-centered fundamental research
programs as the principal driving force for proliferation of further
scientific and technological progress of the economy as a whole.
- The crucial role of the individual private entrepreneur
(as distinct from the often Golem-like, publicly held stock
corporation and holding company), especially those occupied with the
kinds of machine-tool practice related to design of
proof-of-principle experiments, like the comparable case of the
progressive individual farmer, in pushing forward the suitably
impassioned process of technological progress. A sane form of
modern economy demands that the state create the regulated
environment and basic economic infrastructure in which the function
of the sovereign cognitive powers of the individual, serves as the
cutting edge of technology-driven, increasingly capital-intensive
forms of economic progress at large.
Thus, this
form of science-technology-education-driven economic growth, is, by its
nature, Riemannian in form. The addition of validated new discoveries of
universal physical principles, expands the multiply-connected manifold of
universal physical principles being applied. That shift in the manifold is
expressed, characteristically, by a change in the implied
physical-space-time curvature of action within that economy. This shift,
in turn, is reflected in the anti-entropic form of increase of the
potential relative population-density. It is the rate of change, the rate
of increase of productivity so defined, which is the substance of the
anti-entropic "free energy" ratio upon which the continued
generation of true, rather than fictitious profit depends.
Those eight
points summarily identify the setting within which the discussion of real
rates of economic growth is to be situated.
The
Global Division of Labor
As the cases
of China and India underscore the point, most of the world today is
imperilled by a shortage of currently usable land-area relative to large
concentrations of the world's existing population. The obvious present
barriers to improvement of the condition of life of the majority of the
world's population, are to increase the ratio of usable to total
land-area, to increase the potential population-density of those land
areas, and to accelerate the effective rate of scientific and
technological progress in the modes of production and household and
community life.
To this end,
we require the adoption of several rule-of-thumb policy agreements among
nations.
- That the number, scale, and intensity of
"volcanoes" from which scientific and technological progress
is erupting, must be greatly increased, and the fertility of those
sites increased.
- That, to make possible the assimilation of such scientific
and technological progress, the required basic economic infrastructure
(e.g., water management, power, transportation, education, health
care) must be provided in all of the areas targetted for high rates of
gain in productivity and living standard.
- That the creation of long-term credit for relevant
purchases of scientific and technological progress and build-up of
needed infrastructure, must be greatly expanded, to enable flows from
those places in which the relatively highest rates of technological
progress are being generated, into the areas of greatest need and
opportunity for such development of land-areas, populations, and
productive economy.
This means
that related policies must be crafted from the standpoint of looking
approximately a quarter-century ahead. This forward span will come to be
expressed in the terms of long-term credit advanced for relevant
categories of capital improvements. This will represent a desperately
needed new chance at life, for a shabby relic of a civilization now at the
verge of destroying itself.
Such a
program of global reconstruction, will echo the best features of economic
cooperation between the U.S.A. and western Europe during the 1945-1965
interval. It must also represent an improved way of thinking about
economy, including a sweeping, contemptuous rejection of everything
associated with, or resembling the axiomatically irrationalist, Conservative
Revolution dogma of existentialists such as Schopenhauer, Nietzsche,
Martin Heidegger, Friedrich von Hayek, Ludwig von Mises, Norbert Wiener,
John von Neumann, Maurice Strong, and the Mont Pelerin Society's
ideologues generally. That is to say, we must think of economy in terms of
physical economy, rather than placing the emphasis on nominal financial
assets, and must view economy as expressing mankind's increasing power
within and over the universe we inhabit. It must also express a
recognition of the role of the forms of cooperation based upon the
cultural principles of cognition, rather than the perverted notion of man
as Hobbesian-like, of man as self-degraded into being a mere beast-like
creature ruled by pleasure and pain.
There must be
a new, deeper, richer conception of the notions of strategy, military and
otherwise. The actual cause for warfare in the history of modern European
civilization, has been nothing other than the struggle of modern
oligarchies to subjugate either one another, or, more generally, to either
keep populations in the condition of virtual human cattle, or, as today's
Mont Pelerin ideologues do, to return mankind to such a human-cattle-like
political and social condition. The insurgency of that treasonous asset of
the British monarchy, the Confederacy, to destroy the U.S.A., and to
ensure the perpetuation of chattel slavery, is typical of the causes for
just wars, such as that led by President Abraham Lincoln, just as Europe's
belated agreement to the conditions of the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia,
defined the premises in international law for as much civilized life as
has actually existed within extended European civilization since that
time.
Today, the
principal danger to civilization is from that London-centered, global
financier oligarchy, which has adopted the proliferating dupes of the Mont
Pelerin Society's "free trade" dogma as the instrument for
destroying the existence of the sovereign nation-state, reducing the scale
and life-expectancies of the majority of the human population, and
degrading the survivors chiefly to the status of human cattle, of virtual
Nintendo-addicted Yahoos. Those dupes, are in fact fascists, just as much
as Adolf Hitler before them. If that oligarchy and its right-wing dupes,
were to succeed in imposing their globalization, "free trade,"
and shareholder-interest ideologies, civilization would soon cease to
exist on this planet for a generation or more to come. To defeat that
oligarchy in that, its evil, neo-imperial enterprise, would be the only
just cause for warfare among nations at this historical juncture.
Otherwise, the world has no further, justifiable need of warfare, except
in necessary defense of a peaceful order among sovereign nation-states.
The time has
come to bring forth on this planet, the rule of man's affairs by a
partnership among a community of perfectly sovereign nation-state
republics, republics committed to that promotion of the general welfare
which is outlined in the opening paragraphs of our 1776 Declaration of
Independence, and the Preamble of our Federal Constitution. Among nations
so united in a community of principle among perfectly sovereign
nation-states, no justified war could occur. The principle, the general
welfare of all of the people, and their posterity, of each nation, and the
general welfare of each member of the community of such nations, is the
only visible means by which a planet-wide state of affairs suitable for
human beings can be brought into existence.
In such a
community, the jewel of all civilization, is the development of the
perfectly sovereign cognitive powers of the individual person. The
promotion of the development of that individual, those powers, and the
realization of the benefit each might contribute to present and future
humanity, must be the conception which motivates all our shaping of
economic policies. That must be the case in fact; that must be a shared
understanding among the parties.
A basket of
commodities, as I have outlined that case here, is thus to be understood
as a shared commitment to do good. The issue of economy is, therefore,
not the exact price to be placed on any commodity, but the good will
expressed in the way a reasonable estimate of a fair price is adopted.
On that basis, a reasonable price for a unit basket of commodities, will
be the right price in practice.
[1]
For those who may have forgotten, the following highlights of the period
from the August 22, 1962 assassination attack on President Charles de
Gaulle, through the October 18, 1964 rise of the disastrous Harold Wilson
as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, are notable. On October 22, 1962,
President John F. Kennedy declared the U.S.-Soviet missiles crisis. The
October 28, 1962 establishment of France's Fifth Republic under de Gaulle,
is notable. There is the historic January 14, 1963 meeting between de
Gaulle and Chancellor Konrad Adenauer. The February 14, 1963 election of
Harold Wilson as successor to British Labor Party chief Hugh Gaitskell. A
new assassination attack upon President de Gaulle on February 15, 1963.
The July 1963 unleashing of that Profumo scandal in Britain, which led to
the October 18, 1963 retirement of Prime Minister Harold Macmillan. On
April 23, 1963, Chancellor Konrad Adenauer announces his intention to
retire in the coming October. On November 22, 1963 President Kennedy is
assassinated. This interval, from mid-1962 through the election of Harold
Wilson, is the location of one of the great turning-points in the course
of modern history. The 1968 assassinations of Rev. Martin Luther King and
of Democratic Presidential pre-candidate Robert Kennedy, less than six
years after the Wilson election, and during the approximately half-year
following Wilson's Autumn 1967 unleashing of the first of the series of
monetary crises leading into Nixon's destroying the old Bretton Woods
system, in mid-August 1971, are not to be regarded as the inevitable
aftermath of the 1962-1964 interval, but as developments greatly
encouraged by what occurred during that earlier interval.
[2]
As my associate Richard Freeman has documented the available, pertinent
evidence, about the close of July 1923 the German authorities' use of
monetary inflation to continue to meet reparations-related payments,
produced a phase-shift in the ratio of rates of monetary emission to
outstanding financial debt. This unleashed the wild spiral of
commodity-price inflation which completed the destruction of the currency
itself three months later. The launching of "wall of money"
policies adopted jointly by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
and present U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers during the interval
October 1998-February 1999, has recently produced a phase-shift between
monetary and financial appreciations of the same principled form as the
July-August 1923 German case. The recent escalation of inflation in
primary commodities, such as petroleum, food, and in real estate, reflects
the recent and continuing onset of movement in the direction of a
Weimar-style blow-out of both the U.S. dollar and the IMF system with it.
[See Figure
1.]
[3]
Typical of the evils fostered by a floating-exchange-rate system, is the
swindle by means of which the IMF system looted so-called Latin America.
The London market, which is the center of most of the world's financial
speculation, would orchestrate a run against the currency of a nation of
South or Central America. Then, the international monetary authorities,
would intervene to require a reduction in the value of the targetted
currency. Worse, they would then increase the foreign debt of the
targetted nation, to compensate the international lenders for the loss in
expected debt-service revenues which might otherwise be caused by the
forced devaluation. Thus, since 1971, the nations of South and Central
America have, aggregately, paid vastly more debt-payment than they ever
actually incurred!
[4]
Today, it must be emphasized often, that the U.S. political-economy, and
Constitution, echoed the influence of Gottfried Leibniz, and rejected the
contrary dogma of John Locke. For example, the use of Leibniz's rebuttal
of Locke: "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness," in the
1776 Declaration of Independence reflects this, as does Benjamin
Franklin's connections to followers of Leibniz in Germany itself, such as
Göttingen University's Abraham Kästner. Vattel's influence, on Hamilton
and others in the Americas, is reflective of this. (See Robert Trout,
"Life, Liberty, and The Pursuit of Happiness," Fidelio,
Spring 1997.)
[5]
Typical of charlatans, those U.S. and other influentials who have made a
wasteland of once powerful agro-industrial economies, say that this has
occurred only because the "old economy" was doomed, anyway. Like
the typical charlatan, they point to the vast speculative bubble in
physically worthless "New Economy" fluff, as proof that the
economy which can no longer afford to pay its social welfare and
infrastructural bills, is "really" much a bigger and better
"new suit of clothes" for our Emperor.
[6]
My initial focus, from early 1948, was against the use of the term "negentropy"
by Norbert Wiener. That same year, my attention broadened to include the
problematical systemic features of Professor Nicholas Rashevsky's
mathematical biophysics, and also that of Oparin. My views respecting the
relevant systemic characteristics of living processes were, and remain in
the vein of Louis Pasteur and Vladimir Vernadsky. My preference for
Vernadsky's views on biogeochemistry, over the contrary view of Oparin,
Rashevsky, Schrödinger, et al., does not represent the last word on
Vernadsky's own development of this subject; my associate, Dr. Jonathan
Tennenbaum, has been digging out, translating, and assessing some
important later writings by Vernadsky on the principles of both living and
cognitive processes. Notable is a September 1938 paper, whose title
Tennenbaum has translated as On the Fundamental Material-Energetic
Difference Between Living and Nonliving Natural Bodies in the Biosphere.
So far, the principal defect in these later writings by Vernadsky, is an
inadequate appreciation of the relevant implications of those discoveries
of Bernhard Riemann which latter contributed greatly to all of my own work
on related issues of the science of physical economy. All of my relevant
work of the 1948-1953 interval, was principally a reflection of my earlier
refutation of I. Kant's attacks on the work of Gottfried Leibniz;
hence, my recognition of the popularized notion of universal entropy as
the fruit of neo-Kantian Romanticism.
[7]
I use anti-entropic in the same sense as I define the physical geometry of
Riemann as anti-Euclidean, rather than the customary and epistemologically
clumsy "non-Euclidean." Such distinctions in terminology are not
merely more precise choices than the conventional ones. The lunatic effort
to replace living man by devices allegedly exhibiting "artificial
intelligence," has no different basis than stubborn, blind faith in
defining the physical universe as fully explainable in terms of the
hereditary, aprioristic, axiomatic assumptions associated with today's
generally accepted, reductionist-deductive schemes of classroom
mathematics. It was the Leibnizian legacy of anti-Euclidean physical
geometry, as transmitted from Kästner to his student Gauss, to Riemann,
which permits us to recognize that it is physics which must govern
mathematics, rather than the other way around. The banning, by Riemann, of
all a priori notions, such as those of space and time, from
geometry, and the replacement of such notions by experimentally validated
discoveries of universal physical principles, such as life and cognition,
has been the breakthrough which opened the door to a saner understanding
of the meaning of "physical universe," one in which the
existence of those living cognitive beings called people, need no longer
be held in doubt.